IGC raises 2014/15 world grain production outlooks Sept. 26, 2014
The International Grains Council (IGC) on 25th September raised its forecast for global wheat production in 2014/15 to reflect an improved outlook in the European Union and Ukraine.
The IGC, in a monthly update, put world wheat production in 2014/15 at a new record – 717.6 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 713.4 MMT and last year's harvest result (712.5 MMT).
The largest revision was for the EU where the crop was put at 153.1 MMT, up 2.3 MMT from last month's forecast and well above the prior season's 143.1 MMT.
Ukraine's wheat crop was put at 23 MMT, up from an earlier estimate of 21.5 MMT and last year's crop (22.3 MMT).
The IGC said global wheat stocks at the end of the 2014/15 season were expected to climb to a five-year peak while total grain stocks were projected to rise to the highest level since the end of the 1999/2000 season.
Amid plentiful availabilities and limited demand, low/medium grade wheat prices moved mostly lower in September. In contrast, durum and North American spring milling wheat quotations firmed on continued quality concerns
The IGC said seeding of the 2015/16 winter wheat crop in the northern hemisphere was under way and total area was projected to increase slightly, year-on-year.
The IGC projected world corn production at 974.2 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from last month's forecast but still below the prior season's record harvest (983.3 MMT).
Production forecasts for the U.S., EU and Russia are raised due to good yield potential. Because of drought damage, China's crop is expected to show its first contraction in five years.
China's corn crop in 2014/15 was forecast at 215 MMT, down from a previous projection of 220 MMT and now below last season's 218.5 MMT.
The U.S. corn crop was put at 360 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 355 MMT and the prior season's 353.7 MMT.
With old crop southern hemisphere supplies still being marketed and, with 2014/15 harvesting now underway in the US and Black Sea region, export competition is expected to strengthen.
Global carryover corn stocks at the end of the 2014/15 season were put at 191.4 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 190.1 MMT and a year earlier total of 175.6 MMT