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OVERVIEW FOR 2018/19

Global rice production is raised this month due to multi-year revisions for China. Global consumption is forecast marginally higher and ending stocks are raised to a new record, also on the revisions for China. Trade is trimmed on lower purchases by Bangladesh and Afghanistan.

RICE PRICES

Export quotes from the Western Hemisphere remain elevated compared to those from Asian suppliers. U.S. quotes, while lower from earlier in the year, remain the highest although stable at $550/ton as harvest pressure from new crop supplies is offset by recent sales to Iraq. Meanwhile, Uruguay quotes are steady at $520/ton. Over the past month, Thai quotes slid lower to $392/ton as it vies for business with the recent Philippines tenders. In contrast, Vietnamese quotes have risen to $415/ton. Indian and Pakistani quotes have declined further to $365/ton and $360/ton, respectively, as the recent kharif crop is met with muted off-shore demand. This is the lowest Indian quote in more than a year and a half, and the lowest Pakistani quote in almost 2 years.

Bangladesh Imports Decline on Larger Crop

Rice production in Bangladesh has been revised higher this month on larger crops for the recently completed aus and current aman seasons. Total 2018/19 production is now forecast up nearly 2 million tons compared to the prior year. The government reinstated a higher import duty at that time in light of higher domestic production. The import pace has proven to be lackluster since then, resulting in a sharply lower estimate this month of 600,000 tons for 2019 imports.

Black Sea Trade Flows (BST Flows)

FeedDinner 2019