State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine” - PJSC “SFGCU”

India. Oilseeds and Products Annual. Apr 2013

Report Highlights:

Assuming a normal monsoon season (June-September), India’s total oilseed [1] production is expected to grow 6.4 percent to 37 million tons in MY 2013/14 (Oct-Sep). Strong market prices for oilseeds and yield improvements will likely increase oilseed crush and push total oil meal production to 17.8 million tons, an increase of 6 percent in MY 2013/14. Growing international demand for animal feed is also expected to push Indian oil meal exports to 5.6 million tons. Edible vegetable oil production and consumption are expected to increase to 7.6 million tons and 18.6 million tons, respectively. As a result, imports will increase to reach almost 11 million tons. 

Executive Summary: 

Assuming a normal monsoon (June-September), India’s total oilseed (includes soybean, rapeseed-mustard, peanut, sunflower seed, cottonseed and copra. Production of minor oilseed crops are not covered in this report) production is expected to grow 6.4 percent to 37 million tons in MY 2013/14 (Oct-Sep). Strong market prices for oilseeds and yield improvements will likely increase oilseed crush and push total oil meal production to 17.8 million tons, an increase of 6 percent in MY 2013/14. 

Under the XIIth five-year plan, the Government of India (GOI) plans to expand area under oil palm cultivation across 8 states. The launch of a National Livestock Mission in FY 2013-14 should also encourage growth in domestic animal feed demand. With growing demand for animal feed also outside of India, oil meal exports are expected to reach 5.6 million tons. 

Edible vegetable oil production and consumption are expected to increase to 7.6 million tons and 18.6 million tons, respectively. As a result, imports will increase to reach almost 11 million tons. The import forecast includes 8.4 million tons of palm oil, 1.3 million tons of soy oil, 1.2 million tons of sunflower oil and 10,000 tons of other edible oils. While India’s per capita edible oil consumption is increasing (currently estimated at 14.1 kg for 2012/13), it still remains far below the world average per capita consumption of 21.6 kg.  

Oilseeds

Production:

Assuming a normal monsoon (June-September), India’s total oilseed production is expected to grow 6.4 percent to 37 million tons in MY 2013/14 (Oct-Sep). Previous year oilseed production estimates and the MY 2013/14 forecast are based on the latest data available from the Indian Ministry of Agriculture. . 

The GOI plans to launch a national mission on oil seeds and oil palm under the XIIth five-year plan. This effort will incorporate the existing integrated scheme for oilseeds, pulses, oil palm and maize, the central sector scheme on tree borne Oilseeds and Oil Palm Area Expansion (OPAE). This program is expected to bring 49,682 hectares (33,182 hectares from FY 1011/12 and an additional 16,500 hectares in FY 2012/13) under oil palm cultivation. Andhra Pradesh is leading the expansion drive, followed by Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Odisha, Gujarat, Mizoram, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh. Increasing vegetable oil imports in the last few years, especially palm oil, prompted a review of the strategy for expanding domestic vegetable oil production. The OPAE program, initially proposed in FY 2011/12, was implemented in FY 2012/13 (April-March) under Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKYY). The FY 2012/13 Union Budget provides an outlay of 99.5 billion rupees to the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), an increase of 20.9 billion rupees from the previous year. As agricultureis a state subject, the GOI central government program is also supplemented by state government’s efforts to enhance oilseed production and productivity.

Consumption: 

Food use of oilseeds is expected to increase to 1.7 million tons in MY 2013/14, driven by increased production of soy-based food products, increasing peanut consumption in snack foods, and the growing use of rapeseed in curry and other sauce preparations. 

At the same time, oilseed feed waste is also expected to grow to 5 million tons, driven largely by cottonseed and soybean waste, which are forecast at 3 and 1 million tons, respectively. Higher domestic oilseed production typically generates more “waste.” “Waste” broadly also includes seeds retained for sowing/re-sowing operations, feed and industrial use. 

The FY 2013/14 Union Budget provides for a withdrawal of the education cess and secondary and higher education cess exemption on soybean products. While this will result in marginally higher prices, it is unlikely to have significant effect on consumption. 

Trade: 

India annually exports more than $1 billion worth of high value handpicked select (HPS) peanuts, sesame, niger seed, cottonseed, safflower seed and rapeseed-mustard. The total export volume around 1 million tons, including approximately 300,000 tons of minor oilseeds. With the expectation of strong prices due to rising domestic consumption, oilseed exports in the current and forecast year will likely continue to grow but at a relatively modest rate. Oilseeds can be imported into India without any quantitative restrictions, but typically face high tariffs and complex phytosanitary regulations. Anticipating higher peanut production in MY 2013/14, exports are likely to grow to 650,000 tons, especially as demand for Indian Hand Picked Select (HPS) peanuts remains strong. India is a supplier to neighboring countries and to countries like Vietnam, South Korea, the United States, Egypt, Taiwan, Germany and Turkey. 

On January 30, 2013, the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) issued an addendum to the regulation of export of peanuts and peanut products through control of aflatoxin, applicable to countries other than Russia and EU. 

The APEDA addendum proposes the following changes: 

1) Exporters shall ensure that all peanut and peanut product processing units from whom they source the produce have provided their data available to the Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC) for submission to Peanut.Net by March 31, 2013. 

2) The processing units shall obtain HACCP certification no later than July 31, 2013.

3) Exporters shall ensure compliance with the aflatoxin level, not more than7 percent. 

Other provisions stated in the regulation remain unchanged. The IOPEPC is nominated by APEDA to implement the procedures and shall manually issue certificate of exports until February 10, 2013, after which the certificate shall be generated through Peanut.Net for all countries. The joint efforts of IOPEPC and APEDA are intended to increase awareness of the quality of Indian peanuts, helping exporters to focus on international quality standards. 

Similarly, anticipating higher domestic production of sesame seed in MY 2012/13, exports are likely to grow to 400,000 tons from 361,000 tons in MY 2011/12. Vietnam is the largest importer of Indian sesame seeds followed by South Korea, the United States, Egypt and Taiwan.

Stocks: 

As domestic consumption is growing faster than domestic oilseed production, inventories held by private and government (cooperative) warehouses are gradually declining. From MY 2011/12, total oilseed inventory is expected to contract by more than 300,000 tons through MY 2013/14. The GOI Commission for Agriculture Costs & Prices has recommended an increase in the oilseed minimum support price (MSP) for 2012/13 to boost output and provide a better return to farmers. The MSP proposal includes minor oilseeds such as sesamum and niger seed. As market prices during MY 2012/13, were mostly higher than the government MSP, the procurement of major oilseeds by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) will likely remain low. Private-held stocks are also expected to be modest.

Meals

Production:

Strong market prices for oilseeds and yield improvements will likely increase oilseed crush and push total oil meal production to 17.8 million tons, an increase of 6 percent in MY 2013/14. In My 2011/12, international demand for Indian meals and growing domestic consumption constrained the oilseed supplies. With diminishing stocks, the availability of oilseeds for crushing was limited. An estimated 80 percent of India’s total oilseed supply is crushed for meal and oil; oil meal is then utilized for feed and food. The specific end-use allocation can vary according to available domestic supplies and export demand for Indian oil meal during the marketing year. 

Consumption: 

Assuming normal conditions in MY 2013/14, total feed waste is expected to grow 6 percent to 11.9 million tons. This includes 3.8 million tons of cottonseed meal (mostly used for livestock feed), 3.2 million tons of soybean meal, 2.7 million tons of rapeseed meal, 1.5 million tons of peanut meal, and 700,000 tons of other oil meals. 

The proposed launch of the National Livestock Mission in FY 2013-14 is expected to encourage growth in the dairy and livestock sectors. Together with the poultry sector, demand for animal feed is likely to remain strong. India’s organized feed industry uses soy meal, and also peanut, sunflower seed, and rapeseed meal in various formulations.

Growing consumption of oil meals in MY 2012/13 will likely put pressure on available domestic supply, and may even potentially create some opportunity for imports. , During the period August 2012 to March 31, 2013, the GOI allowed oilmeal imports at zero duty as an effort to augment domestic supplies. While there are no quantitative restrictions on oilmeal imports, the availability of other cheap feed material continues to generally discourage imports, even at zero import duty. 

Aside from animal feed use, oil meals like soymeal are increasingly used in processed food products, healthcare products, and also as low-cost high-protein supplements. Soymeal is also finding new niche markets as a texturized protein (chunks, flakes, nuggets, and grains), to fortify other food products (wheat flours, biscuits etc), or for the extraction of protein isolates (with a 90 percent or more protein content, it is a good substitute for animal protein).

Trade: 

Assuming strong international demand for Indian oil meal, meal exports are forecast to increase 5 percent to 5.6 million tons (The forecast does not include castor and rice bran meal) in MY 2013/14. The potential to export will be limited by strong domestic consumption. During first 5 months of MY 2012/13, oilmeal exports dropped 12 percent, mainly due to reduced international demand. Specifically, declining sales in Japan, Iran, and China, affected the volume of Indian oil meal exports. At the same time, Indian rapeseed and mustard meal are increasingly finding new markets as organic products.

Geographical proximity to Asian and the Middle Eastern countries, the ability to ship in smaller vessels, delivering higher protein content (48 percent in soybean meal), and a marketing strategy focused on non-GMO status, enhance India’s competitiveness as an oil meal exporter.

Policy:

Recent Policy Developments announced in the 2013/14 Union Budget (April-March) 

•The GOI has removed a 10 percent export duty on de-oiled rice bran cake. This commodity is an important cattle feed ingredient of cattle feed, especially in markets like Vietnam. 

•The GOI has allocated Rs 132.15 billion for a mid-day meal program for schoolchildren, Rs 177 billion for an Integrated Child Development Service and host of other programs to promote protein rich foods. Several state governments are also promoting increased utilization of low-cost high-protein supplements derived from soybeans. 

The GOI is proposing to establish a National Livestock Mission with a provision of Rs 3.07 billion to attract investment and enhance productivity. This program will seek to promote the availability of quality feed and fodder (including green fodder).

Oils

Production:

An expected increase in total oilseed production, coupled with the larger oilseed crush is expected to raise total edible oil production by 6 percent to 7.6 million tons in MY 2013/14. Rapeseed-mustard oil, as well as soybean and peanut oil, will account for most of this increase. Edible oil production for current marketing year is estimated at 7.2 million tons, which includes 2.5 million tons of rapeseed oil, 1.7 million tons of soybean oil, 1.2 million tons of peanut oil, 1.1 million tons of cottonseed oil, and 690,000 tons of coconut, palm and sunflower oils. Other minor edible oils such as rice bran oil, sesame seed oil, safflower oil and niger seed oil are not included in this report. 

Sesame seed oil is premium oil, exported in small but significant quantities to cater to niche demand from overseas buyers. According to industry sources, sesame oil exports in MY 2011/12 were worth $10.6 million. Countries such as China, Mexico, Taiwan, UAE, Singapore, the United States of America, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are the major buyers of Indian sesame oil. 

Consumption: 

Growing population, rising income levels and improved supply conditions are expected to continue to drive edible oil consumption to 17.4 million tons in MY 2012/13, up 1.08 million tons over the previous year. Palm oil will continue to be the largest consumed edible oil. Considering its versatility in blending with other edible oils, competitive prices, increased usage across vanaspati (partially hydrogenated vegetable oil), confectionary and margarine industries, its food use consumption will rise to 8.4 million tons in MY 2013/14. After palm oil, soft oils such as soybean and rapeseed are the largest edible oil segments estimated at 3.2 million tons and 2.6 million tons, respectively. Peanut, cottonseed and sunflower together constitute the rest. The per capita edible oil consumption in India is increasing(currently estimated at 14.04 kg for MY 2012/13); however, this remains far below the estimated world average per capita consumption of 22.4 kg.

Healthier Cooking Oils on Shelves 

Given India’s current demographic profile, consumer tastes and preferences can vary widely from one region to the next. Coconut, peanut and sunflower oil are widely consumed in south India, peanut and cottonseed oils are more prevalent in Gujarat and Maharashtra, rapeseed oil in Northeast and Northwest India, while soybean oil prevails in central India, and rice bran oil in eastern India. 

Catering to very diverse preferences, India’s edible oil manufacturers are promoting fortified refined palmolein, safflower and rice bran oil as healthy cooking oils, expanding capacity to produce various palm and traditional oil blends. Use of cottonseed oil is also becoming more widespread, due to its light color, neutral odor and blending characteristics with other oils. 

Most of edible oil purchased by households or by institutional users (food processors, restaurants and hotels) are sold in loose form or as vanaspati (partially hydrogenated vegetable oil). Vegetable oil sold in loose form is often again repacked and re-sold under different private labels. However, the percentage of refined oils that are directly branded and packaged by the refiners is also growing, as consumers are becoming more aware of health and quality factors in their choice of food products. According to industry sources, almost 35 to 40 percent of the edible oil market is branded. Branded edible oils sold in low-volume low-priced packages or sachets are selling well, a development that indicates a growing consumer preference for branded products.

Trade: 

India is the world’s largest importer of edible vegetable oil, followed by China and the EU-27. Rising domestic consumption in India is expected to continue driving demand for imported edible oil, which should reach 11 million tons in MY 2013/14, up 8 percent over the current year. The MY 2013/14 import forecast includes 8.4 million tons of palm oil, 1.3 million tons of soy oil, 1.2 million tons of sunflower oil and 10,000 tons of other edible oils. 

On January 23, 2013, the GOI published Customs Notification No 02/2013 introducing a 2.5 percent import duty on crude edible vegetable oil. While the announcement was intended to basically to protect domestic oilseed farmers, it did not affect the duty on refined cooking oil, which remains unchanged at 7.5 percent. 

Given Malaysia and Indonesia’s inverted export duty structure on crude and refined palm oil, and an import duty difference of 5 percent between them, traders have been incentivized to build stocks of refined oils. During first 5 months of the current year, total edible oil imports were up 20 percent at 4.7 million tons. Based on current trends, total imports are likely to grow 11 percent to 10.1 million tons in MY 2012/13.

Policy: 

Recent Policy Developments 

•Per the recent DGFT notification No 32 (RE-2012)/2009-2014, the GOI has extended the ‘prohibition on export of edible oils’ until further notice (the previous order expired on October 2012). However, export of branded consumer packs up to 5 kg are permitted with a minimum export price of USD 1500 per metric ton. The export restriction does not apply to non-edible grade castor oil, coconut oil, and certain other specific tree oils. 

 

•The GOI has again extended the subsidized edible oil program for the year ending September 30, 2013. The program is intended to reach target beneficiaries, providing 1 million tons of imported edible oils at a subsidy of Rs 15 per kg through state government’s public distribution system (PDS). 

 

The only biotech food product currently authorized for import into India is soybean oil derived from glyphosate-tolerant soybeans. On June 22, 2007, the GEAC gave a permanent approval for importation of soybean oil derived from Roundup Ready soybeans for consumption after refining. Also, as Bt cotton now accounts for over 90 percent of the total cotton produced in India, most of the cottonseed oil produced and consumed in India is GM

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