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WHEAT

- Nov 22 - Morocco’s ONICL tenders to buy 45,455 MT of EU durum wheat under quotas with reduced import tariffs for arrival by May 31

- UN aid agency recently purchased around 50,000 MT of milling wheat, likely Ukrainian, for donation to Yemen for mid-November-mid-December shipment

- UN aid agency recently purchased around 4,000 MT of Russian wheat for donation to North Korea for arrival before the end of January 2019

- Nov 1 - Taiwan Flour Millers' Association bought 101,400 MT of US milling wheat in two consignments:

  • The first consignment has an additional charge of 32.32 $/mt for ocean shipping from the US Pacific North West coast to Taiwan for shipment between Dec 19-Jan 2:
    • 25,450 MT of dark northern spring wheat (14.5% protein) from CHS at 255.62 $/mt fob;
    • 18,800 MT of hard red winter wheat (12.5% protein) from Itochu at 245.28 $/mt fob;
    • 8,050 MT of soft white wheat (9% protein) from CHS at 232.70 $/mt fob.
  • The second consignment has an additional charge of 33.48 $/mt for ocean shipping from the US Pacific North West coast to Taiwan for shipment between Jan 5-19:
    • 25,500 MT of dark northern spring wheat (14.5% protein) from CHS at 257.47 $/mt fob;
    • 18,100 MT of hard red winter wheat (12.5% protein) from Itochu at 248.41 $/mt fob;
    • 5,500 MT of soft white wheat (9% protein) from CHS at 232.70 $/mt fob

- Indonesian buyers last week bought 25,000 MT of Canadian Western Red Spring wheat, 13.5% protein, at around 290-295 $/mt c&f for February shipment

- Oct 31 - Jordan has made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 MT of optional-origin hard milling and retender on Nov 7

- Nov 5 - China auctioned 5,425 MT of imported 2013 wheat from state reserves, or 0.6% of the offered amount at average price of 2,165 RMB/mt (313 $/mt)

- Nov 2 - China auctioned 9,022 MT of imported 2013 wheat from state reserves, or 1% of the offered amount at average price of 2,195 RMB/mt (319 $/mt)

- Nov 1 - China auctioned 7,215 MT of imported 2013 wheat from state reserves, or 1.2% of the offered amount at average price of 2,189 RMB/mt (315 $/mt)

- Oct 31 - China sold 201,250 MT of wheat from state reserves or 9.2% of the offered amount at auction at average price of 2,415 RMB/mt (347 $/mt)

- Oct 31 - China auctioned 5,219 MT of imported 2013 wheat from state reserves, or 0.7% of the offered amount at average price of 2,200 RMB/mt (315 $/mt)

- Weekly US wheat export sales data for week ended Oct 25 totaled 582,500 MT for 2018/19 (topped trade expectations for 200-500 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 16% behind of year-ago

- Ukraine's Ag Min said Ukraine exported about 13.3 MMT of grain between July 1-Oct 31, 2018/19, including 7.5 MMT of wheat, 2.8 MMT of corn and 2.7 MMT of barley

- Ukrainian farms have sown as of Nov 1 a total of 7 million hectares of winter grains for the 2019 harvest, or 97% of the expected area of 7.2 million

- Kazakhstan has harvested 22.676 MMT of grains, as of Nov 3, up from 22.253 MMT a year ago, yields totaled 1.51 mt/ha (1.45 mt/ha in 2017)

- FranceAgriMer estimated winter wheat planting 69% done as of October 28, behind of last year’s pace of 75%

- FAO raised its forecast of global wheat production in 2018 to 727.9 MMT from 722.4 MMT projected in Oct (760.4 MMT in 2017), on reported bigger harvests in China along with a number of other countries more than offsetting a further downgrading of crop prospects in Australia. Stocks (ending in 2019) revised upwards by 8.9 MMT to 264.4 MMT, primarily on higher projected build-ups in China, but still below their record high opening levels of 276.8 MMT

CORN

- Nov 6 - Jordan seeks 120,000 MT of optional-origin feed barley

- Nov 2 - Saudi Arabia's SAGO (Saudi Grains Organisation) bought 1.02 MMT of feed barley of Australia, South and North America (excl. Canada), EU and Black Sea origin at an average price of 266.83 $/mt c&f in 17 consignments for Jan-Feb shipment to the Red Sea ports (660 TMT) and the Gulf ports (360 TMT):

  • Red Sea Ports:
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $265.42 (Jan 1-15);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $265.52 (Jan 15-30);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $265.62 (Jan 15-30);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $265.72 (Jan 15-30);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $265.82 (Jan 15-30);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $265.92 (Feb 1-15);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $266.02 (Feb 1-15);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $266.12 (Feb 1-15);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $266.22 (Feb 15-28);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $266.32 (Feb 15-28);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $266.42 (Feb 15-28).
  • Gulf Ports:
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $268.54 (Jan 1-15);
    • 60,000 MT from Cofco Resources at $267.24 (Jan 15-30);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $268.64 (Jan 15-30);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $268.74 (Feb 1-15);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $268.84 (Feb 15-28);
    • 60,000 MT from Glencore at $268.94 (Feb 15-28)

- Nov 2 - USDA announced export sales of 200,900 MT of US corn for delivery to Mexico during 2018/19

- Oct 31 - Japan bought 18,090 MT of feed barley for Feb 28 arrival via SBS-tender. New SBS tender for 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley will be held on November 7

- Weekly US corn export sales data for week ended Oct 25 totaled 399,400 MT, incl. 394,400 MT for 2018/19 (below expectations for 500-800 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 28% ahead of year-ago

- Informa Economics cut its US corn yield forecast by 2.4 bu to 179.7 bushels per acre (bpa), which results in a US corn crop estimate of 14.698 billion bu for 2018

- FCStone lowered its forecast this year's US corn harvest to 14.83 billion bushels with an average yield of 181.4 bpa from 14.94 billion bushels and 182.7 bpa previously

- Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported October corn exports at 3.201 MMT, down from 3.424 MMT in September and down vs. 5.028 MMT in the year-ago month

- Ukrainian farmers harvested 23.1 MMT of corn from 72% of planned area as of Nov 1, yields totaled 7.05 mt/ha

- FranceAgriMer estimated France’s corn condition as of October 28 as 57% in good to excellent, unchanged from prior week, but below the year-ago score of 81%. French farmers harvested 96% of corn as of Oct 28 vs. 91% a week ago and 85% a year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated winter barley planting 76% done as of October 28, behind of last year’s pace of 85%

- Mali has produced a record grain crop of 10.45 MMT for the 2017/18 season, a 12.4% increase over last year, but production for the 2018/19 season was forecast to fall to 10.08 MMT

- FAO raised its forecast of global corn production in 2018 to 1,068.9 MMT from 1,066.4 MMT projected in Oct, indicating a 2.2% (23.8 MMT) decline from the 2017 record level. Global corn stocks (ending in 2019) downgraded by 1.4 MMT from last month to 267.4 MMT, 14% below their opening levels (311.1 MMT)

- China has reported 50-th African swine fever case

SOYBEAN

- Oct 31 - China sold 84,620 MT of 2013 soybeans from state reserves, or 84.2% of the offered amount, at average price of 3,059 RMB/mt (439 $/mt)

- Weekly US soybeans export sales data for week ended Oct 25 totaled 455,800 MT, incl. 395,800 MT for 2018/19 (below trade expectations for 400-700 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 29% behind of year-ago

- Weekly US soymeal export sales data for week ended Oct 25 of 321,700 MT, incl. 317,400 MT for 2018/19, topped trade expectations of 150-300 TMT. Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 15% ahead of year-ago

- USDA estimated US September soybean crush for crude oil at 5.078 million short tons, a 0.2% decrease from August and behind of average market expectation (5.131 mln tons), but above last year level (4.361 mln tons in September 2017). Crude soyoil stocks fell to 1.643 billion lbs as of September 30 from 1.844 in August, above the 1.401 bln lbs a year ago, while refined oil stocks were at 347.087 million lbs as of September 30 vs. 370.887 in August and 310.036 in September 2017. September US soy cake and meal stocks were at 498,862 tons vs. 359,936 in August and vs. 353,758 tons a year-ago

- Informa Economics lowered its US soybean yield forecast by 0.4 bu to 52.6 bpa, which results in a 4.647 billion-bu crop estimate

- FCStone lowered its forecast of US 2018 soybean production to 4.699 from 4.796 billion bushels previously, with an average yield of 53.2 bpa (54 bpa previously)

- FCStone lifted its 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop forecast to 120.19 MMT, up from 119.34 MMT in its prior forecast. It also upped its forecast of 2018/19 Brazil soybean exports by 3.5 MMT to 75 MMT, 1 MMT below the previous season

- Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported October soybean exports at 5.353 MMT, up from 4.611 MT in September and up vs. 2.487 MMT a year ago. Also Brazil exported 1.142 MMT of soymeal in October versus 1.289 MMT the month before and 1.276 MMT a year ago; and 79,196 MT of soyoil compared to 84,599 MT in September and 115,602 MT a year ago

- FAO upped its forecast for world soybean production in 2018/19 by 0.6 MMT to a new record 371.1 MMT (341.1 MMT in 2017/18), as higher forecasts for Argentina, Canada and Ukraine more than offset downward revisions in Brazil and a number of other countries. Trade in 2018/19 raised to a record, underpinned by stronger import demand in Argentina, Egypt, the EU and some Asian countries. Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) revised up by 0.3 MMT to 54.2 MMT (41.1 MMT in 2017/18)

- Ukrainian farmers harvested 13.2 MMT of sunflower seed from 97% of planned area as of Nov 1, yields totaled 2.24 mt/ha

- Ukrainian farmers harvested 4.1 MMT of soybeans from 95% of planned area as of Nov 1, yields totaled 2.54 mt/ha

- Ukrainian farmers have completed winter rapeseed sowing for the 2019 harvest at 1 million hectares (115% of plan) as of Nov 1

- Surveyor Intertek Testing Services estimated Malaysia's October 1-31 palm oil exports at 1,398,418 MT down 14.1% from a month ago

- Surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia estimated Malaysia's October 1-31 palm oil exports at 1,393,850 MT down 12.9% from a month ago

- Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia's October 1-31 palm oil exports at 1,427,539 MT down 12.4% from a month ago

Black Sea Trade Flows (BST Flows)

FeedDinner 2019