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WHEAT

- Oct 4 - Egypt's GASC bought 180,000 MT of wheat from Russia for December 1-10 shipment:

  • 60,000 MT of Russian wheat from Daewoo at 251.64 $/mt c&f (233.95 fob+17.69 freight),
  • 60,000 MT of Russian wheat from Aston at 253.49 $/mt c&f (235.80 fob+17.69 freight),
  • 60,000 MT of Russian wheat from Garant Logistics at 254.59 $/mt c&f (236.9 fob+17.69)

- Oct 3 - Tunisia's state grains agency bought 75,000 MT of optional-origin durum wheat and 25,000 MT of soft wheat:

  • 25,000 MT of soft milling wheat from Olam at 249.11 $/mt c&f for Nov 5-15;
  • 25,000 MT of durum wheat from Glencore at 270.73 $/mt c&f for Jan 1-10;
  • 25,000 MT of durum wheat from Glencore at 272.48 $/mt c&f for Jan 10-20;
  • 25,000 MT of durum wheat from Glencore at 274.29 $/mt c&f for Jan 10-20

- Iraq's trade ministry purchased a total of 50,000 MT of Canadian wheat in private negotiations

- Oct 2 - Taiwan Flour Millers' Association bought 110,000 MT of US milling wheat in two consignments:

  • The first consignment has an additional charge of 32.94 $/mt for ocean shipping from the US Pacific North West coast to Taiwan and was bought from United Grain Corporation for shipment between Nov 18-Dec 2:
    • 26,980 MT of dark northern spring wheat (14.5% protein) at 252.21 $/mt fob;
    • 20,480 MT of hard red winter wheat (12.5% protein) at 248.14 $/mt fob;
    • 7,540 MT of soft white wheat (9% protein) at 231.49 $/mt fob.
  • The second consignment has an additional charge of 33.2 $/mt for ocean shipping from the US Pacific North West coast to Taiwan for shipment between Dec 3-17:
    • 30,595 MT of dark northern spring wheat (14.5% protein) from United Grain Corporation at 255.53 $/mt fob;
    • 18,430 MT of hard red winter wheat (12.5% protein) from Cargill at 249.71 $/mt fob;
    • 5,975 MT of soft white wheat (9% protein) from Cargill at 229.73 $/mt fob

- Sept 28 - Morocco's ONICL received no offers in a tender to import up to 336,364 MT of US durum wheat as part of a preferential-tariff import quota tender

- UN aid agency recently purchased around 50,000 MT of milling wheat, likely Romanian, for donation to Yemen for December shipment

- Weekly US wheat export sales data for week ended Sept 27 totalled 435,300 MT for 2018/19 (within trade expectations for 250-550 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 19% behind of year-ago

- US wheat export inspections for week, ending Sept 27, recorded 369,270 MT, near the lower end of trade expectations (350-500 TMT). Inspections for 2018/19 are running 30.6% behind of year-ago

- USDA said the US winter wheat crop 43% planted as of Sept 30, ahead last-year score (34%) and 5-year mean (40%), but slightly behind average of analysts’ expectations (44%)

- USDA in a quarterly report said wheat stocks as of Sept 1 totalled 2.379 billion bushels, 1.5% above the average analyst estimate (2.343 billion bushels). In a separate report, USDA boosted its estimate for the 2018 US wheat crop by 7 million bushels to 1.884 billion bushels. Analysts, on average, had expected the government's wheat harvest estimate to fall to 1.872 billion bushels

- Libya is eager to buy 1 MMT of wheat and animal feed from Russia for around $700 million

- Farmers in Russia harvested 70.2 MMT of wheat as of Oct 5, down from 85.5 MMT last year, yields totals 2.84 mt/ha (3.26 mt/ha in 2017)

- Russian wheat exporters want to register with the Algerian authorities by the end of the year to start a process aimed at securing access to a market now dominated by France

- Russia's agriculture safety watchdog has warned of a possible temporary suspension of 30 grain loading points in two of Russia's top grain exporting regions - Krasnodar and Rostov. The work of the firms which operate these points could be suspended for up to 90 days if a violation of phytosanitary rules is confirmed. Rosselkhoznadzor has no plans to suspend wheat exports immediately

- Ukraine exported 2.26 MMT of wheat in September 2018, down 14.4% on year (2.64 MMT in Sept 2017)

- Ukrainian farms have sown as of Oct 5 a total of 5.1 million hectares of winter grains for the 2019 harvest, or 71% of the expected area of 7.2 million

- Kazakhstan has harvested 19.853 MMT of grains, as of Oct 5, down from 21.433 MMT a year ago

- FC Stone estimated the Australia wheat crop at 16.4 MMT, lowest in 11 years, down from 18.8 MMT last month, below Australia's latest official estimate of 19.1 MMT

- Morocco will cancel customs duty on soft wheat on November 1 to ensure regular supply. To protect the local harvest, Morocco imposed a 135% customs duty which will last until October 31

- Indian government has decided to raise the 2019 local wheat purchasing price by 105 rupees from last season to 1,840 rupees per 100 kilograms (250.9 $/mt)

- FAO raised slightly its forecast of global wheat production in 2018 to 722.4 MMT from 721.8 MMT projected in Aug (756.9 MMT in 2017). Stocks (ending in 2019) revised upwards by 3.2 MMT to 255.5 MMT on higher inventories in Australia and Russia, but still well below their record high opening levels of 273.1 MMT

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 exported 3.947 MMT of soft wheat compared to 5.77 MMT a year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated winter wheat planting 5% done as of Sept 30, behind of last year’s pace of 6%

CORN

- Oct 9 - Jordan seeks 120,000 MT of optional-origin feed barley

- Oct 3 - Taiwan's MFIG bought 65,000 MT of US or Brazil corn from ADM at a premium of 148.77 USc/bushel c&f over the Chicago March contract (206.89 USD/mt, c&f) for Nov 20-Dec 9 shipment

- Oct 3 - Tunisia's state grains agency bought 50,000 MT of optional-origin feed barley for Oct 25-Nov 25 shipment:

  • 25,000 MT of feed barley from Glencore at 262.67 $/mt c&f;
  • 25,000 MT of feed barley from Casillo at 262.68 $/mt c&f

- Oct 3 - Japan bought 64,190 MT of feed grain (22,730 MT of wheat and 41,460 MT of barley) for Feb 28 arrival via SBS-tender. New SBS tender for 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley will be held on October 10

- Oct 3 - USDA announced export sales of 230,000 MT of US corn for delivery to Japan during 2018/19

- Oct 2 - Turkey's TMO bought 138,000 MT of barley (23x6 TMT) for Oct 9-30 shipment:

  • 72,000 MT from Aston at 250 $/mt c&f Mersin, Derince, Bandirma, Tekirdag;
  • 6,000 MT from RusAgro at 250.5 $/mt c&f Samsun;
  • 18,000 MT from Hakan at 251.7 $/mt c&f Bandirma;
  • 6,000 MT from Aston at 252 $/mt c&f Izmir;
  • 6,000 MT from Sierentz at 254 $/mt c&f Trabzon;
  • 30,000 MT from Cofco at 259.4 $/mt c&f Iskenderun

- Weekly US corn export sales data for week ended Sept 27 totalled 1,431,000 MT for 2018/19 (within expectations for 1-1.6 MMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 63% ahead of year-ago

- US corn export inspections for week, ending Sept 27, reported 1,344,689 MT, topped market expectations (1-1.25 MMT). Inspections for 2018/19 are running 47.4% ahead of year-ago

- USDA rated 69% of the US corn crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sept 30, unchanged from prior week and matching analysts’ expectations, better than last year’s 63%. USDA estimated 26% of the US corn crop was harvested, in line with analysts' forecasts, above last year’s pace (16%) and the 5-year mean (17%)

- USDA in a quarterly report said corn stocks as of Sept 1 totalled 2.14 billion bushels, 6% above the average analyst estimate (2.01 billion bushels). The bigger-than-expected supply shows less corn than anticipated was used for livestock feed in the last quarter

- Informa Economics raised its US corn yield forecast by 3.3 bu to 182.1 bushels per acre (bpa), which results in a US corn crop estimate of 14.89 billion bu for 2018

- FCStone raised its forecast this year's US corn harvest to 14.94 billion bushels with an average yield of 182.7 bpa from 14.532 billion bushels and 177.7 bpa previously

- Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported September corn exports at 3.424 MMT, up from 2.899 MMT in August but down vs. 5.914 MMT in the year-ago month

- Saudi Arabia plans to allow private sector to import feed barley after two years during which it was handled solely by the state

- FAO raised its forecast of global corn production in 2018 to 1,066.4 MMT from 1,065.5 MMT projected in July, indicating a 2.4% (26.4 MMT) decline from the 2017 record level. Global corn stocks (ending in 2019) revised up by 1.7 MMT from last month to 268.8 MMT, still well below their opening levels (307.6 MMT)

- Ukraine exported 285 TMT of corn in Sept 2018, doubled from last year (119 TMT in Sept 2017)

- Ukraine exported 577 TMT of barley in Sept 2018, down 50.2% on year (1.16 MMT in Sept 2017)

- Ukrainian farmers harvested 8.3 MMT of corn from 30% of planned area as of Oct 5, yields totalled 6.09 mt/ha

- Farmers in Russia harvested 17.1 MMT of barley as of Oct 5, down from 21.1 MMT last year, yields totals 2.25 mt/ha (2.8 mt/ha in 2017)

- Farmers in Russia harvested 4.2 MMT of corn as of Oct 5, down from 5.5 MMT last year, yields totals 3.94 mt/ha (4.7 mt/ha in 2017)

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 3.862 MMT of corn (maize) vs. 3.59 MMT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 exported 158,848 MT of corn vs. 225,819 MT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 exported 1.376 MMT of barley vs. 1.5 MMT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 exported 576,935 MT of malt in barley equivalent vs. 740,398 MT a year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated France’s corn condition as of Sept 30 as 58% in good to excellent, unchanged from prior week, but below the year-ago score of 80%. French farmers harvested 42% of corn as of Sept 30 vs. 21% a week ago and 12% a year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated winter barley planting 8% done as of Sept 30, behind of last year’s pace of 11%

SOYBEAN

- Oct 5 - USDA announced export sales of 134,000 MT of US soybean cake and meal for delivery to Philippines during 2018/19

- Weekly US soybeans export sales data for week ended Sept 27 totalled 1,525,200 MT, incl. 1,521,200 MT for 2018/19 (just topped higher end of trade expectations for 900-1500 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 13% behind of year-ago

- Weekly US soymeal export sales data for week ended Sept 27 of 470,600 MT, incl. 58,900 MT for 2017/18 (topped expectations for -200-0 TMT) and 411,700 MT for 2018/19, within trade expectations of 200-500 TMT. Export commitments for 2017/18 are running 23% ahead of year-ago

- US soybean export inspections for week, ending Sept 27, reported 591,115 MT, within trade estimates (450-850 TMT). Inspections for the 2018/19 marketing year are running 26.2% behind of year-ago

- USDA rated 68% of the country’s soybeans in good or excellent condition as of Sept 30, unchanged from prior week and in line with market expectations, better than last year’s 60%. USDA estimated 23% of the US soybean crop was harvested, ahead of last year’s pace (20%) and the 5-year mean (20%), but below analysts' forecasts (27%)

- USDA in a quarterly report said soybean stocks were 438 million bushels as of Sept. 1, exceeding analysts' estimates by 9% (401 million bushels). USDA also increased its estimate for last year's US soybean harvest by 0.4% to 4.411 billion bushels. Analysts on average were expecting the agency to trim its estimate (4.389 billion bushels)

- USDA estimated US August soybean crush for crude oil at 5.089 million short tons, a 5.2% decrease from July, but above last year level (4.549 mln tons in August 2017) and ahead of average market expectation. Crude soyoil stocks fell to 1.844 billion lbs as of August 31 from 1.984 in July, above the 1.483 bln lbs a year ago, while refined oil stocks were at 370.887 million lbs as of August 31 vs. 399.98 in July and 327.31 in August 2017. August US soy cake and meal stocks were at 359,936 tons vs. 462,350 in July and vs. 290,921 tons a year-ago

- Informa Economics raised its US soybean yield forecast by 0.1 bu to 53 bpa, which results in a 4.677 billion-bu crop estimate

- FCStone raised its forecast of US 2018 soybean production to 4.796 from 4.782 billion bushels previously, with an average yield of 54 bpa (53.8 bpa previously)

- FCStone lifted its 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop forecast to a record high 119.34 MMT, up from 119.18 MMT in its prior forecast. It also upped its forecast of 2018/19 Brazil soybean exports by 0.5 MMT to 71.5 MMT, with China expected to buy as much Brazilian soy as possible thanks to its trade war with the US

- Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported September soybean exports at 4.611 MMT, down from 8.127 MT in August but up vs. 4.272 MMT a year ago. Also Brazil exported 1.289 MMT of soymeal in September versus 1.462 MMT the month before and 1.163 MMT a year ago; and 84,599 MT of soyoil compared to 209,268 MT in August and 10,444 MT a year ago

- FAO upped its forecast for world soybean production in 2018/19 by 3.7 MMT to a new record 370.5 MMT (340.6 MMT in 2017/18) on higher than anticipated US soybean yields and expectations of another record-breaking crop in Brazil. Trade lowered as imports by China are now forecast to post a decline from 2017/18. Stocks (2018/19 carry-out) again revised sharply upwards, up by 6.5 MMT to 53.9 MMT (40.2 MMT in 2017/18), underpinned by higher forecasts for Argentina and the US

- Strategie Grains lifted forecast of EU's 2018/19 soybean production to 2.7 MMT from 2.69 MMT previously (2.6 MMT in 2017/18)

- Strategie Grains raised its forecast of EU's 2018/19 rapeseed production to 19.9 MMT from 19.62 MMT previously (22.17 MMT in 2017/18)

- Strategie Grains raised its forecast of EU's 2018/19 sunflower seed production to 9.48 MMT from 9.33 MMT previously (9.79 MMT in 2017/18)

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 3.198 MMT of soybeans vs. 2.991 MMT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 4.2 MMT of soymeal vs. 5.184 MMT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 808,509 MT of rapeseed vs. 950,233 MT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 51,180 MT of sunflowerseed vs. 104,005 MT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 450,526 MT of sunflower meal vs. 714,183 MT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 233,986 MT of sunflower oil vs. 415,388 MT a year ago

- EU this season in period of July 1-Sept 30, 2018/19 imported 1.4 MMT of palm oil vs. 1.722 MMT a year ago

- Ukraine exported 586 TMT of rapeseed in September 2018, down 16.4% on year (701 TMT in Sept 2017)

- Ukraine exported 250 TMT of sunflower oil in September 2018, down 19.3% on year (310 TMT in Sept 2017)

- Ukrainian farmers harvested 10.3 MMT of sunflower seed from 78% of planned area as of Oct 5, yields totalled 2.18 mt/ha

- Ukrainian farmers harvested 2.3 MMT of soybeans from 55% of planned area as of Oct 5, yields totalled 2.5 mt/ha

- Ukrainian farmers have completed winter rapeseed sowing for the 2019 harvest at 987,000 hectares (111% of plan) as of Oct 5

- Farmers in Russia harvested 5.1 MMT of sunflowerseed as of Oct 5, up from 4.7 MMT last year, yields totals 1.73 mt/ha (1.82 mt/ha in 2017)

- Farmers in Russia harvested 2.2 MMT of soybeans as of Oct 5, up from 1.7 MMT last year, yields totals 1.75 mt/ha (1.66 mt/ha in 2017)

- Farmers in Russia harvested 1.8 MMT of rapeseed as of Oct 5, up from 1.4 MMT last year, yields totals 1.47 mt/ha (1.75 mt/ha in 2017)

- Surveyor Intertek Testing Services estimated Malaysia's September 1-30 palm oil exports at 1,628,070 MT up 51.6% from a month ago

- Surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia estimated Malaysia's September 1-30 palm oil exports at 1,600,441 MT up 49% from a month ago

- Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia's September 1-30 palm oil exports at 1,629,365 MT up 54.6% from a month ago

- GAPKI estimated Indonesia's August exports of palm oil and palm kernel oil at 2.99 MMT, up 6% from the previous month (2.81 MMT in July) and up 0.3% compared to August 2017 (2.98 MMT)

Black Sea Trade Flows (BST Flows)

FeedDinner 2019