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WHEAT

- Sept 28 - Morocco’s ONICL tenders to buy 336,364 MT of US durum wheat under an annual preferential-tariff quota for arrival by December 31

- Sept 23 - Iraq seeks at least 50,000 MT of hard wheat from the US, Canada or Australia. The tender closes on Sept 23 and offers must remain valid up to Sept 27

- Sept 14 - Saudi Arabia’s SAGO seeks 595,000 MT of wheat, 12.5% protein, in 10 consignments for Nov-Dec shipment

- Sept 14 - Tunisia's state grains agency seeks 50,000 MT of optional-origin durum wheat and 67,000 MT of soft wheat for Oct-Dec shipment

- Sept 13 - Jordan has made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat

- Sept 13 - China sold 485,287 MT of 2013 wheat from state reserves or 33% of the offered amount at auction at average price of 2,133 RMB/mt (311 $/mt)

- Sept 12 - Algeria's OAIC bought 630,000 MT of wheat in a tender at 262-263 $/mt c&f for November shipment from Lecureur (120 TMT), Casillo (120 TMT), Soufflet (120 TMT), Cargill (120 TMT), Bunge (90 TMT), Cofco (60 TMT)

- Sept 12 - Egypt's GASC bought 235,000 MT of wheat from Russia for October 25-November 4 shipment:

  • 60,000 MT of Russian wheat from Alegrow at 240.15 $/mt c&f (223.23 fob+16.92 freight);
  • 60,000 MT of Russian wheat from Aston at 240.15 $/mt c&f (223.23 fob+16.92 freight);
  • 60,000 MT of Russian wheat from Daewoo at 240.15 $/mt c&f (223.23 fob+16.92 freight);
  • 55,000 MT of Russian wheat from Daewoo at 240.38 $/mt c&f (222.60 fob+17.78 freight)

- Weekly US wheat export sales data for week ended Sept 6 totalled 387,600 MT for 2018/19 (within trade expectations for 300-500 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 24% behind of year-ago

- USDA said the US spring wheat harvest was 93% complete by Sept 9, behind of average expectation and last-year pace of 94%, but above the 5-year mean (85%)

- USDA said the US winter wheat crop 5% planted as of Sept 9, in line with last-year score and 5-year mean, but behind average analysts’ expectations of 6%

- USDA upped its forecast of global wheat production by 3.4 MMT to 733 MMT, down 3.3% (or 25 MMT) from the 2017/18 record, up this month mainly from larger crops in India and Russia, which more than offset smaller crops for Australia and Canada. Consumption is forecast to exceed production for the first time in 6 years

- USDA raised forecast of 2018/19 world wheat inventories by 2.34 MMT to 261.29 MMT vs. 274.36 MMT in 2017/18, above average expectation of 257.58 MMT

- Strategie Grains cut its EU 2018 soft wheat crop forecast from 127.7 to 126.8 MMT, 11% below 2017/18 (141.9 MMT). They also cut estimate of 2018/19 EU soft wheat exports by 1 MMT to 18.8 MMT vs. 20.5 MMT in 2017/18

- FranceAgriMer expects French soft wheat production in 2018/19 at 34.551 MMT, down from 36.564 MMT in previous year. Wheat stocks are forecasted at 2.461 MMT at the end of 2018/19, down from 2.953 MMT last year. French exports are expected to decline 4.8% this season to 16.672 MMT from 17.51 MMT in 2017/18, incl. export outside the EU at 8.5 MMT (8.117 MMT last season) and within the EU at 8.057 MMT (9.268 MMT in 2016/17)

- Bulgaria harvested 5.4 MMT of wheat in 2018, 6.3% less than a year ago; about 53% of the harvested wheat is of good milling quality

- Tunisia gathered 1.4 MMT of cereals (incl. 960 TMT of durum wheat, 110 TMT of soft wheat and 310 TMT of barley) this season down from 1.6 MMT last season because of lack of rain

- Japan will sell imported wheat to domestic millers at an average price of 55,560 yen/mt (498 $/mt) in October-March, up 2.2% from the previous six-month period (54,370 yen/mt in April-September), reflecting a higher wheat prices in its main suppliers, Australia, Canada and the US, and higher shipping rates due to oil prices

- Conab upped its forecast for 2018 wheat production to 5.239 MMT from 5.144 MMT in August and compared to 4.264 MMT last year. They forecast wheat imports this year at 6.3 MMT (6.387 MMT in 2017)

- Rosario grain exchange kept its forecast of Argentine 2018/19 wheat production at a record 21 MMT

- FC Stone forecasts 2018/19 Australian wheat output at 18.78 MMT, below Australia's latest official estimate of 19.1 MMT

CORN

- Sept 14 - Tunisia's state grains agency seeks 75,000 MT of optional-origin feed barley for Oct-Dec shipment

- Sept 13 - China sold 2,902,204 MT of corn from state reserves, or 73.3% of the offered amount, at average price of 1,567 RMB/mt (229 $/mt)

- Sept 12 - Jordan bought 60,000 MT of optional-origin feed barley from GTCS at 261 $/mt c&f for Nov 1-15 shipment

- Sept 12 - Japan bought 1,000 MT of feed barley for Feb 28 arrival via SBS-tender. New SBS tender for 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley will be held on September 19

- Sept 13 - USDA announced export sales of 142,876 MT of US corn for delivery to Costa Rica during 2018/19

- Sept 11 - USDA announced export sales of 138,000 MT of US corn for delivery to South Korea during 2018/19

- Weekly US corn export sales data for week ended Sept 6 of 774,200 MT for 2018/19 (below expectations for 800-1200 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running 44% ahead of year-ago

- USDA rated 68% of the US corn crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sept 9, up 1% point from the previous week, ahead of analysts’ expectations (66%) and better than last year’s 61%. USDA estimated 5% of the US corn crop was harvested, in line with last year’s pace and above the 5-year mean of 3%, but slightly behind analysts' forecasts of 6%

- USDA's forecast of US corn ending stocks for 2018/19 came in above the average trade expectations. Also USDA projected the highest US corn yield on record (181.3 bpa), above the top end of range of expectation

- USDA raised forecast of global corn production in 2018/19 by 7.9 MMT to 1,069 MMT, up 3.4% (or 35 MMT) from last year, up this month with larger crops for Angola, European Union, and the US more than offsetting reductions for Canada and South Africa. Global trade is at a record, driven by stronger imports for the EU and higher exports for Serbia, Ukraine, and the US

- USDA upped forecast of 2018/19 global corn ending stocks by 1.5 MMT to 157.03 MMT, above an average of trade expectations (154.48 MMT), but down from 194.15 MMT in 2017/18

- China's Ag Min raised its forecast of 2018 corn output to 213.02 MMT from 211.45 MMT previously (215.89 MMT in 2017). China’s 2018/19 corn imports are forecasted at 1.5 MMT (3.3 MMT in 2017/18)

- Conab lowered its forecast of Brazil's 2017/18 corn crop to 81.357 MMT from 82.181 MMT in August (97.843 MMT last season) with second crop at 54.541 MMT (67.381 MMT in 2016/17). Conab lowered its forecast for Brazil corn exports by 4.5 MMT to 25.5 MMT (30.837 MMT in 2016/17). Ending stocks are forecasted at 13.858 MMT vs. 17.247 MT in 2016/17

- Rosario grain exchange lowered its forecast of Argentine 2018/19 corn crop to 43 MMT, down from 45-46 MMT previously

- Strategie Grains cut its forecast of EU's 2018/19 corn production by 2.9 MMT to 58.4 MMT, 2% below 2017/18 (59.3 MMT)

- Strategie Grains lowered its forecast of EU's 2018/19 barley production from 57.1 to 56.6 MMT, 3% below 2017/18 (58.4 MMT)

- FranceAgriMer estimated France's 2018/19 corn crop at 11.676 MMT vs. 13.473 MMT last year with the carryout projected at 2.525 MMT against 2.549 MMT in 2017/18. France's 2017/18 corn export is forecasted at 4.533 MMT vs. 5.316 MMT year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated French 2018/19 barley crop at 11.554 MMT vs. 12.095 MMT last year with the carryout projected at 955,000 MT against 1.514 MMT in 2017/18. France's 2018/19 barley exports (without malt) is expected at 6.679 MMT up 11.5% over 5.992 MMT a year ago

- Sept 12 - The Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC) announced the acquisition of Ukrainian farming company Mriya Agro Holding

SOYBEAN

- Sept 13 - Egypt’s GASC bought 20,000 MT of local soybean oil at 672.25 $/mt from Watanya/Cargill, also 11,500 MT of sunflower oil from Aston at 736 $/mt c&f with facilities 180 days for Oct 16-31 arrival

- Sept 13 - USDA announced export sales of 228,010 MT of US soybeans for delivery:

  • 108,010 MT to Mexico during 2018/19;
  • 40,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2018/19;
  • 80,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2019/20

- Sept 11 - USDA announced cancellations of export sales of 192,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during 2018/19

- Sept 12 - China sold 59,740 MT of 2013 soybeans from state reserves, or 60.2% of the offered amount, at average price of 3,080 RMB/mt (448 $/mt)

- Weekly US soybeans export sales data for week ended Sept 6 totalled 693,500 MT for 2018/19 (within trade expectations for 500-1000 TMT). Export commitments for 2018/19 are running in line with a year-ago

- Weekly US soymeal export sales data for week ended Sept 6 of 223,200 MT, incl. 34,900 MT for 2017/18 (within expectations for 0-100 TMT) and 188,300 MT for 2018/19, within trade expectations of 100-300 TMT. Export commitments for 2017/18 are running 19% ahead of year-ago

- USDA rated 68% of the country’s soybeans in good or excellent condition as of Sept 9, up 2% points from prior week and above market expectations of 65%, also better than last year’s 60%

- USDA raised forecast of US 2018/19 soy ending stocks to an unprecedented 845 million bushels, and US soybean output to a record-large 4.693 billion bushels, but both forecasts still within the range of analyst estimates

- USDA raised forecast of global soybean production in 2018/19 by 2.2 MMT to a record 369.3 MMT, up 9.6% (or 32.5 MMT) from last year, with gains for the US and China exceeding losses in Canada, India, and Uruguay. Global soybean imports are down, driven by weaker demand from China

- USDA upped forecast of 2018/19 global soybean ending stocks by 2.3 MMT to a record 108.26 MMT, above average expectation of 107.29 MMT (94.74 MMT in 2017/18)

- China's Ag Min raised its 2018 soybean output estimate to 15.83 MMT from 15.37 MMT in August (14.55 MMT in 2017). Soybean imports forecast was sharply cut to 83.65 MMT from 93.85 MMT in August and vs. 93.9 MMT in 2017/18

- Conab raised its forecast of Brazil's 2017/18 soy output to a new record of 119.281 MMT from 118.986 MMT in August and compared to previous crop of 114.075 MMT. Conab raised its forecast of Brazil’s soybeans export by 4 MMT to 76 MMT (68.155 MMT in 2016/17). Ending stocks are forecasted to decrease to 434,200 MT from 2.253 MMT in 2016/17

- Rosario grain exchange forecasts Argentine 2018/19 soybean crop to reach 50 MMT

- FC Stone forecasts 2018/19 Australian canola output at 2.4 MMT, below Australia's latest official estimate of 2.8 MMT

- MPOB estimated Malaysian crude palm oil production in August at 1.622 MMT, below average expectation of 1.652 MMT but up 7.9% from 1.503 MMT in July. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at end-August rose 12.4% from the previous month to 2.489 MMT, the highest since January and above the average market expectation of 2.413 MMT. Malaysian August palm oil exports fell by 8.1% to 1.1 MMT, below average expectation of 1.233 MMT

- Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia's September 1-10 palm oil exports at 415,275 MT up 44.4% from a month ago

Black Sea Trade Flows (BST Flows)

FeedDinner 2019