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WHEAT

- May 16 - Jordan seeks 120,000 MT of optional-origin milling wheat for Sept-Oct shipment

- May 9 - Jordan bought 60,000 MT of optional-origin hard milling wheat from Cerealcom Dolj at 225 $/mt c&f for Sept 16-30 shipment

- May 10 - Japan bought 95,740 MT of food wheat for June-July shipments:

  • 17,770 MT of western white US wheat;
  • 36,540 MT of hard red winter US wheat;
  • 7,070 MT of dark northern spring US wheat;
  • 34,360 MT of Australian standard white wheat

- May 10 - The lowest offer in Bangladesh’s tender for 50,000 MT of wheat came in at 265 $/mt CIF liner out from Phoenix Global. Other offers were: Singsong – 273.2 $/mt; Agrocorp – 274.85 $/mt; Aston – 274.9 $/mt

- May 9 - China sold 310,297 MT of wheat from state reserves or 14.9% of the offered amount at auction at average price of 2,399 RMB/mt (377 $/mt)

- May 9 - Argentina registered 93,500 MT of wheat for export

- Egypt has procured 70% or around 2.8 MMT of the 4 MMT it aims to buy from farmers in this year's domestic wheat harvest. Egypt generally buys wheat from local farmers from mid-April through July

- Weekly US wheat export sales data for week ended May 3 totalled 83,400 MT, incl. 35,200 MT for 2017/18 (within trade expectations for 0-350 TMT) and 48,200 MT for 2018/19 (below trade expectations for 200-350 TMT). Export commitments for 2017/18 are running 16% behind of year-ago

- USDA projected the total US wheat crop for the 2018/19 marketing year at 1.821 billion bushels, above the average analyst estimate for 1.777 billion and up 5% from the prior year

- USDA pegged US wheat ending stocks for the 2017/18 crop year at 1.07 billion bushels (1.065 – average trade estimates) and projected the 2018/19 carryout at 955 million bushels (930 million bushels – average estimates)

- USDA projected global wheat production to reach 747.8 MMT, down 1.4% (or 10.6 MMT) from the 2017/18 record. Consumption is forecast to exceed production for the first time in 6 years.

- USDA lowered 2017/18 world wheat inventories to 270.46 MMT from April estimate of 271.22 MMT and vs. average expectation of 271.13 MMT. Stocks are expected to decrease to 264.33 MMT in 2018/19, below average expectation of 269.18 MMT

- Conab raised its forecast for 2018 wheat production to 4.872 MMT from 4.657 MMT in April and compared to 4.264 MMT last year. They forecast wheat imports this year at 6.5 MMT, unchanged from 2017

- Rosario grain exchange pegged Argentine 2018/19 wheat crop area at 5.7 mln hectares, up 5% from last year

- Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said Canadian wheat inventories as of Mar 31, 2018 fell 3.9% on year to 16.4 MMT, below average trade estimate of 16.9 MMT

- Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported about 45.3 MMT of grain between July 1-May 9, 2017/18, up by 44% from 31.5 MMT a year ago, including:

  • wheat – 35.2 MMT (24.4 MMT in 2016/17);
  • barley – 5 MMT (2.6 MMT);
  • corn – 4.8 MMT (4.4 MMT)

- Russian Ag Min estimated spring grain planting 30.6% (or 9.49 million ha) done as of May 11 vs. 11.77 million ha a year ago. Russian farmers have sown 1.63 million ha of spring wheat or 12.6% of planned area vs. 2.55 million ha a year ago

- Ukraine's Ag Min said Ukraine exported 34.88 MMT of grain between July 1-May 10 2017/18 vs. 37.96 MMT for the same period last season, including:

  • wheat – 15.48 MMT (15.93 MMT a year ago);
  • corn – 15.02 MMT (16.69 MMT);
  • barley – 4.18 MMT (5.13 MMT)

- Kazakh farmers planted 582,500 ha of spring cereals crops as of May 12 vs. 620,800 ha a year ago

- Strategie Grains upped its estimate for EU soft wheat exports this season to 20.4 MMT, up 100,000 MT from last month, but lowered its forecast for EU 2018/19 wheat exports to 23.6 MMT from 24.1 MMT last month. Strategie Grains trimmed its EU 2018 soft wheat crop forecast from 141 to 140.8 MMT

- FranceAgriMer said 78% of France’s soft wheat crops were in good to excellent condition as of May 6, unchanged from prior week and vs. 76% a year ago

CORN

- May 15 - Jordan seeks 120,000 MT of optional-origin feed barley

- Saudi Arabia’s SAGO seeks 1.5 MMT of feed barley in 25 consignments for July-August shipment

- May 10 - Taiwan's MFIG bought 65,000 MT of US or Brazil corn from Dreyfus at a premium of 159.6 USc/bushel c&f over the Chicago December contract (around 228 USD/mt, c&f) for Jul 20-Aug 8 shipment from the US Gulf or Brazil, or Aug 4-23 shipment from the Pacific North West, Argentina or South Africa

- May 10 - South Korea's Major Feedmill Group (MFG) made no purchase in its tender for 70,000 MT of optional-origin corn for Sept 15 arrival

- May 10 - Argentina registered 100,000 MT of corn for export

- May 9 - Argentina registered 100,000 MT of corn for export

- May 8 - Argentina registered 329,080 MT of corn for export

- May 9 - Japan received no offers for 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley in a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction. New SBS tender for the same amounts for each grain will be held on May 16

- May 11 - China sold 1,494,068 MT of corn from state reserves, or 36.4% of the offered amount, at average price of 1,401 RMB/mt (221 $/mt)

- May 10 - China sold 3,190,482 MT of corn from state reserves, or 81.7% of the offered amount, at average price of 1,498 RMB/mt (235 $/mt)

- China's Ag Min expects 2018 corn output to decrease 2.9% year-on-year to 209.53 MMT (215.89 MMT in 2017). China’s 2018/19 corn imports are forecasted unchanged at 1.5 MMT (1.5 MMT in 2017/18)

- Three ships carrying US sorghum to China switched their destinations to Japan and South Korea. Another sorghum vessel that was originally headed to China was redirected for Canada. A rare cargo of US sorghum has arrived in Spain and will be followed by several more

- Weekly US corn export sales data for week ended May 3 of 785,600 MT, incl. 695,600 MT for 2017/18 (near the lower end of trade expectations of 0.75-1.3 MMT). Export commitments for 2017/18 are running 1% behind of year-ago

- USDA's forecasts of US corn ending stocks for both 2017/18 and 2018/19 came in above the average trade expectations

- USDA projected global corn production in 2018/19 at 1,056 MMT, up 1.9% (or 19.4 MMT) from last year, with larger crops for Argentina, Brazil, China, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for the US. Global trade and consumption are forecast to rise to record levels

- USDA forecasted that global corn ending stocks would fall to 159.15 MMT by the end of 2018/19, from 194.85 MMT in 2017/18 and below a range of trade expectations (174.00-193.80 MMT)

- Conab upped its forecast of Brazil's 2017/18 corn crop to 89.208 MMT from 88.618 MMT in April, but less than 97.843 MMT last season with second crop at 62.948 MMT (67.381 MMT in 2016/17). Conab kept its forecast for Brazil corn exports at 32 MMT (30.837 MMT in 2016/17). Ending stocks are forecasted at 16.418 MMT vs. 17.711 MT in 2016/17

- Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said Canadian corn inventories as of Mar 31, 2018 rose 4.3% on year to a record high 8.75 MMT

- Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said Canadian barley inventories as of Mar 31, 2018 fell 25.5% on year to 3.4 MMT, well below average expectation of 4 MMT

- Ukrainian farmers have sown 3.8 million ha of corn or 83% of planned area as of May 11

- Ukraine’s Ag Min estimated early spring grain planting 93%, or 2.2 million ha done as of May 11, thereof:

  • 1.5 million ha of barley (or 92% of planned area);
  • 412,000 ha of peas (or 97%);
  • 185,000 ha of oats (or 91%);
  • 163,000 ha of wheat (or 93%)

- Russian farmers have sown 3.96 million ha of spring barley or 51.9% of planned area as of May 11 vs. 4.33 million ha a year ago

- Russian farmers have sown 1.82 million ha of corn or 60.6% of planned area as of May 11 vs. 2.06 million ha a year ago

- Strategie Grains raised its forecast of EU's 2018/19 corn production to 60.9 MMT from 60.7 MMT previously, up 3% from last year

- Strategie Grains upped its forecast of EU's 2018/19 barley production from 61.8 to 62.2 MMT, up 6% from last year

- FranceAgriMer said 74% of France’s winter barley crops were in good to excellent condition as of May 6, compared with 74% a week earlier and vs. 67% a year ago. Spring barley rating was at 78% in good to excellent vs. 80% last week and vs. 77% a year ago

- FranceAgriMer estimated corn planting 74% done as of May 6 (57% a week-ago), behind of last year’s pace of 91%

SOYBEAN

- May 10 - Three South Korean buyers purchased a total of about 180,000 MT of US or South American soymeal in separate deals:

  • Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought 60,000 MT from Bunge at 475.80 $/mt c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading for Oct 10 arrival;
  • Korea Feed Association (KFA) bought 60,000 MT from Cargill at 475.50 $/mt c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading for Oct 20 arrival;
  • Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) bought 60,000 MT from Cofco at 475.50 $/mt c&f including a surcharge for additional port unloading for Oct 5 arrival

- May 10 - Argentina registered 116,595 MT of soymeal for export

- May 8 - Argentina registered 125,000 MT of soymeal for export

- Weekly US soybeans export sales data for week ended May 3 of 632,600 MT (354,300 MT for 2017/18 and 278,300 MT for 2018/19), within market expectations of 400-900 TMT. Export commitments for 2017/18 are running 3% behind of year-ago

- Weekly US soymeal export sales data for week ended May 3 of 90,300 MT, incl. 90,900 MT for 2017/18 (below market expectations of 100-400 TMT). Export commitments for 2017/18 are running 10% ahead of year-ago

- China's Ag Min expects 2018 soybean output to increase 4.9% year-on-year to 15.27 MMT (14.55 MMT in 2017). China is expected to cut its soybean imports for the first time in 15 years in 2018/19 to 95.65 MMT (95.97 MMT in 2017/18)

- USDA projected US 2018/19 soy ending stocks at 415 million bushels, well below the average pre-report trade estimate of 535 million

- USDA projected global soybean production in 2018/19 at a record 354.5 MMT, up 5.3% (or 17.8 MMT) from last year. This increase primarily reflects a recovering crop from the current drought in Argentina. Global consumption and trade are forecasted to rise to the record levels

- USDA forecasted that global soybean ending stocks would fall to 86.7 MMT by the end of 2018/19, from 92.16 MMT in 2017/18 and below average expectation of 90.52 MMT

- Conab raised its forecast of Brazil's 2017/18 soy output to a new record of 116.996 MMT from 114.962 MMT in April and compared to previous crop of 114.075 MMT. Conab raised its forecast of Brazil’s soybeans export by 1.5 MMT to 69 MMT (68.155 MMT in 2016/17). Ending stocks are forecasted to rise to 2.599 MMT from 1.603 MMT in 2016/17

- Abiove upped its forecast of Brazil's 2018 soybean crop by 1 MMT to 118.4 MMT

- Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said Canadian canola inventories as of Mar 31, 2018 rose 14.4% on year to 9.08 MMT, but below average estimate of 9.4 MMT

- Statistics Canada (StatsCan) said Canadian soybean inventories as of Mar 31, 2018 rose 38.7% on year to a record 2.63 MMT

- Ukrainian farmers have sown 4.9 million ha of sunflower or 88% of planned area as of May 11

- Ukrainian farmers have sown 1.2 million ha of soybeans or 61% of planned area as of May 11

- Russian farmers have sown 2.98 ha of sunflower or 39.5% of planned area as of May 11 vs. 3.55 million ha a year ago

- Russian farmers have sown 840,700 ha of soybeans or 31% of planned area as of May 11 vs. 794,400 ha a year ago

- MPOB estimated Malaysian crude palm oil production in April at 1.558 MMT, behind average expectation of 1.574 MMT and down 1% from 1.574 MMT in March. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at end-April fell 6.4% from the previous month to 2.174 MMT and below the average market expectation of 2.229 MMT. Malaysian April palm oil exports decreased by 1.6% to 1.541 MMT, ahead of average expectation of 1.48 MMT

- Surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia estimated Malaysia's May 1-10 palm oil exports at 406,689 MT down 9.6% from a month ago

Black Sea Trade Flows (BST Flows)

FeedDinner 2019