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OVERVIEW

For 2017/18, global corn production is up this month with a record yield forecast for the U.S. crop more than offsetting reductions for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn trade is driven higher by Mexico and the United States. Imports for Mexico are raised reflecting stronger feed use in light of tightening domestic sorghum supplies. U.S. exports are raised reflecting strong sales, reduced competitor supplies, and relatively competitive FOB bids into early 2018. The U.S. season-average farm price remains unchanged at $3.20 per bushel.

PRICES

Global corn prices mostly declined from last month’s WASDE due mainly to harvest pressure from the United States. Argentine bids fell $3/ton to $146 approaching a historic low due to reduced demand and sales. Black Sea bids are up $3/ton this month to $164 due to tighter supplies in the region. Brazilian bids were relatively unchanged this month. U.S. quotes dropped $2/ton to $157.

East Asia: An Important Region for Competition Between U.S. and Brazilian Corn

East Asian markets have been the foreground for competition between Brazil and U.S. corn exports. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are significant importers (accounting for roughly 20 percent of global corn trade) that source primarily from both countries, as exporters’ prices play a pivotal role in expanding market share. U.S. shipments to all three markets surged in 2016/17 as a result of competitive prices relative to Brazil, where an early end to the rainy season in the Center-West reduced exportable supplies, resulting in a price premium to U.S corn.

However, Brazil’s exports have recovered with a record crop in 2017 (nearly 70 million metric tons of second-crop production) that supports a record export forecast for 2017/18. Shipments to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan garner about one-quarter of Brazil’s global exports, so expectations of retaining significant market share in 2017/18 underpin the projection. In contrast, U.S. 2017/18 corn exports are forecast down without the price advantage over Brazil from the previous year.

Trade policies for corn in all three markets are favorable for the United States and Brazil, with both countries subject to zero duties. With neither country having a clear advantage, FOB prices and freights costs are expected to play a prominent role. Demand growth in these Asian markets is expected to be steady, nevertheless, these major importers are expected to take advantage of historically low corn prices to displace feed wheat in 2017/18, and supports forecast record global corn trade.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2017/18

Selected Exporters

  • U.S. corn is up 1.5 million tons to 48.5 million on strong sales to date and expectations of improved competitiveness.
  • Ukraine corn is cut 1.0 million tons to 20.5 million on lower production. Exports for 2016/17 are shaved 200,000 tons to 21.3 million.
  • Canada barley is up 200,000 tons to 1.5 million on higher demand for China.
  • Russia barley is boosted 300,000 tons to 4.8 million on expectations of supporting higher global demand for feedstuffs.

Selected Importers

  • Mexico corn is raised 1.0 million tons to 16.5 million on expectations of greater feed use and to partly offset tight supplies of domestic sorghum that are damaged by the continued prevalence of the sugarcane aphid.
  • South Korea corn is trimmed 500,000 tons to 9.7 million on slower demand for feed corn as a result of expected higher use of rice in feed rations.
  • Canada corn is up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million on expectations of greater use of less expensive corn replacing feed barley.
  • China barley is chased up another 1.0 million tons to 6.5 million on expectations of higher demand for feedstuffs. Imports for 2016/17 are boosted 500,000 tons to 8.1 million.
  • Saudi Arabia barley is cut 500,000 tons to 8.5 million on forecast higher consumption of compound feed. Imports for 2016/17 are slashed 1 million tons to 9.5 million.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2016/17

Selected Exporters – based on trade data

  • Australia barley is lowered 300,000 tons to 9.2 million.

Selected Importers – based on trade data

  • China corn is cut 500,000 tons to 2.5 million.
  • Taiwan corn is trimmed 400,000 tons to 4.2 million.
  • Venezuela corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 1.2 million
Corn World as of November 2017
Attribute17/18 Nov'17Change17/18 Oct'1716/1715/1614/1513/14
Area Harvested (1000 HA)184,855-65(-.04%)184,920185,536180,919182,204182,835
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)226,583-405(-.18%)226,988214,432209,544174,181132,947
Production (1000 MT)1,043,900+5104(+.49%)1,038,7961,074,762972,8561,023,180996,089
MY Imports (1000 MT)146,575+770(+.53%)145,805136,699139,352124,979124,844
TY Imports (1000 MT)147,635+770(+.52%)146,865140,713138,462125,641126,589
TY Imp. from U.S. (1000 MT)0-027550,60646,71850,676
Total Supply (1000 MT)1,417,058+5469(+.39%)1,411,5891,425,8931,321,7521,322,3401,253,880
MY Exports (1000 MT)151,612+905(+.6%)150,707163,607119,688142,352131,416
TY Exports (1000 MT)151,415+500(+.33%)150,915141,816144,861128,390130,830
Feed and Residual (1000 MT)652,532+2056(+.32%)650,476632,563601,744587,290575,099
FSI Consumption (1000 MT)409,054-396(-.1%)409,450403,140385,888383,154373,184
Total Consumption (1000 MT)1,061,586+1660(+.16%)1,059,9261,035,703987,632970,444948,283
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)203,860+2904(+1.45%)200,956226,583214,432209,544174,181
Total Distribution (1000 MT)1,417,058+5469(+.39%)1,411,5891,425,8931,321,7521,322,3401,253,880
Yield (MT/HA)5.65+(+.53%)5.625.795.385.625.45

Barley World as of November 2017
Attribute17/18 Nov'17Change17/18 Oct'1716/1715/1614/1513/14
Area Harvested (1000 HA)47,717+6(+.01%)47,71148,10250,32649,71450,615
Beginning Stocks (1000 MT)24,328-63(-.26%)24,39126,43324,37424,97921,584
Production (1000 MT)141,660-341(-.24%)142,001147,131149,640141,714144,303
MY Imports (1000 MT)25,413+500(+2.01%)24,91329,19928,71929,85923,103
TY Imports (1000 MT)25,536+500(+2%)25,03629,70428,42728,83323,552
TY Imp. from U.S. (1000 MT)0-00161289331
Total Supply (1000 MT)191,401+96(+.05%)191,305202,763202,733196,552188,990
MY Exports (1000 MT)25,614+500(+1.99%)25,11428,81430,77929,03122,939
TY Exports (1000 MT)25,710+500(+1.98%)25,21029,57827,54530,09423,922
Feed and Residual (1000 MT)102,088-439(-.43%)102,527104,647100,67898,11597,308
FSI Consumption (1000 MT)44,850+196(+.44%)44,65444,97444,84345,03243,764
Total Consumption (1000 MT)146,938-243(-.17%)147,181149,621145,521143,147141,072
Ending Stocks (1000 MT)18,849-161(-.85%)19,01024,32826,43324,37424,979
Total Distribution (1000 MT)191,401+96(+.05%)191,305202,763202,733196,552188,990
Yield (MT/HA)2.97(-.34%)2.983.062.972.852.85